The hell that is the war in Ukraine continues to take a horrific toll. And the danger of this conflict spiraling out into nuclear confrontation is intensifying.

Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister, said in an interview at the end of March that in Europe, 

War is no longer a concept from the past. It is real, and it started over two years ago. The most worrying thing at the moment is that literally any scenario is possible. We haven’t seen a situation like this since 1945 [when World War 2 ended]. I know it sounds devastating, especially for the younger generation, but we have to get used to the fact that a new era has begun: the pre-war era. I’m not exaggerating; it’s becoming clearer every day.

With this extreme danger looming, what's also becoming clearer every day is, as the revolutionary leader Bob Avakian has said:

We, the people of the world, can no longer afford to allow these imperialists to continue to dominate the world and determine the destiny of humanity. They need to be overthrown as quickly as possible. And it is a scientific fact that we do not have to live this way. 

Escalating and Expanding the War

This war in Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched an unjust invasion of Ukraine. Immediately, the U.S.—working through NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) its imperialist military alliance with other European countries—turned this into an opportunity to wage an imperialist proxy war against its Russian rivals. The U.S. is funding, arming, providing intelligence for and largely directing the Ukrainian army to fight in the U.S.'s interests to weaken their imperialist rival, Russia. Both sides are fighting an unjust war, a war to advance the aims of rival capitalist imperialist powers. 

The people of Ukraine are paying the price. Tens of thousands of people, many of them Ukrainian civilians, have been killed. Hundreds of thousands more have suffered terrible, crippling injuries. Up to one-third of Ukraine’s population has been displaced. As of late January, two years into the war, 10 million Ukrainians cannot return to their homes. ABC News wrote that the question of which side will win “is being increasingly shaped by which side can tolerate higher losses.”

Over the past several months Russia has made some limited gains in the land war. But both sides have suffered severe losses. No clear-cut victory—meaning no end to the slaughter—is in sight. Both sides have been finding ways to expand their militaries—in order to throw more troops into the human meat grinder. Last December, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, issued an order to increase the number of troops by 170,000. This spring he ordered another 150,000 to be “conscripted” (drafted into the military). In early April, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, signed laws removing some forms of draft exemption, and lowering the age of draft eligibility for young men. 

This proxy war is also putting all of humanity in danger.

Both sides have also escalated drone and missile strikes at key sections of their opponent’s economic capacity. Ukraine has targeted Russian oil production facilities, and damaged or crippled a significant amount of them. After one round of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on an oil refinery and a military base, an infuriated Putin responded that “from a military-technical point of view … [Russia] was, of course, ready” for nuclear war. He said the U.S. is “developing all their components, and so are we.… We are ready.” 

Think about what he's saying: Nuclear war could mean the utter destruction and total annihilation of our species. 

A New Era

The U.S.-made F-16 fighter jet is supposedly “the world's most successful, combat-proven multi-role jet fighter ever produced.” For several months last year, Joe Biden didn’t allow U.S. imperialist allies in NATO to obtain F-16s from the U.S. for the purpose of training Ukrainians. Biden argued that the F-16s would bring about a greater possibility of direct military confrontation with Russia. A direct military confrontation between nuclear-armed powers holds the great danger of escalation into nuclear confrontations.

In August 2023, the U.S. position changed. Biden allowed the U.S.’s imperialist allies in NATO to provide F-16s to Ukraine, and to train Ukrainian pilots in their use. 

Russia is making advances, and the F-16s are supposed to help Ukraine counter Russian air superiority. Some of the F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots is almost complete and they are expected to be ready for use by Ukraine this summer. 

The use of F-16s by Ukraine would be a significant escalation of the war. It holds greater danger for the kind of direct military confrontation we talked about above—a direct military confrontation between nuclear-armed imperialist powers which holds the danger of escalating into a nuclear confrontation. 

In late March, Putin said that Russia will destroy any F-16s used against it “wherever they are.” When asked if Russian pilots would be allowed to hit F-16s at NATO airfields, Putin responded, “Of course, if they are used from airfields of third countries, they become a legitimate target for us, no matter where they are.” He added that "F-16s are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and we will also need to take that into account while organizing our combat operations.” 

Translation: Putin is threatening that Russia might bomb F-16 planes even if they're in NATO countries. NATO is a military alliance in which the U.S., UK, Germany and other European powers have a mutual defense agreement—meaning that if one country is attacked, all consider themselves attacked. The introduction of F-16s from the U.S. is an escalation, and Russia is threatening to respond with even further escalation. 

Leaders of Western European NATO countries have responded with similar threats and bluster. A leading Swedish military official said, “If Putin wants a war with NATO, that’s how you start it. Then it will be a third world war.”

NATO countries along a 1,500-mile border with Russia have been bolstering “their defense budgets far above NATO’s minimum commitment. …” Three of the most powerful NATO countries, France, Germany, and Poland, have been “spearheading [Europe’s] efforts to re-arm and guard itself against further Russian aggression.”

In this hair-trigger environment, any incident, deliberate or accidental, could set off a larger confrontation. A recent illustration: Polish officials claim that during one of the Russian raids on Ukraine, a Russian missile violated Poland’s air space for 39 seconds. They said Poland was prepared to shoot down the missile if it continued over Poland.

This System Has to Go

The U.S., under the Biden administration and the Democrats, has been the primary backer of Ukraine. The U.S. has provided over $75 billion in military and other aid to Ukraine. But a critical section of Republi-fascists have, so far, blocked further funding for Ukraine. 

As of now, congressional Republican leaders are said to be negotiating with Biden over whether to provide funding for Ukraine, among other things. How this entire intensifying and complex situation will develop is far from clear. 

Bob Avakian, in “The Trials of Fascist Donald Trump, and the Criminal Nature of this Whole System,” spoke to what's really behind this divide:

The fascists (or at least some of them) believe that being involved in a lot of formal alliances with other (lesser) countries may restrict the freedom of U.S. imperialism to act—including with unrestrained violence and destruction—to enforce its interests, anywhere in the world. And, more specifically, at least many of these fascists strongly feel that the proxy war that the U.S., with Biden’s lead, is waging against Russia in Ukraine is a distraction from the necessary focus on opposing China and using whatever means may be necessary to prevent China from surpassing the U.S. as the world’s dominant imperialist power, militarily as well as economically. And these fascists see the war in Ukraine strengthening the ties of Russia with China, making the opposition to U.S. domination more powerful. On the other hand, Biden—and those allied with him in the ruling class—are waging, and continually increasing U.S. involvement in, a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine (using Ukrainians as “cannon fodder” in this war) because this part of the U.S. ruling class is convinced that delivering a defeat to and weakening Russia, and its ability to challenge U.S. dominance, is important in its own right and will also drive a wedge between Russia and China.

It should not have to be said that these kinds of concerns, on either side, have nothing to do with the fundamental interests of the masses of people in this country, and in the world as a whole.