In “THE FOG OF WAR, THE CLARITY OF WAR,” Bob Avakian (BA) lays bare the basic dynamics and dangers now unfolding in the war in Ukraine: 

The “fog of war” refers to the fact that, in a situation of warfare, many things become obscured. To put it simply, it is often difficult to tell exactly what is happening.

Related to this is the fact that war, once begun, has its own dynamics: things often do not go the way that the people who started a war, or became involved in it, expected them to go. This has very heavy meaning in the current war in Ukraine, which involves not just Russia and Ukraine but also the imperialist alliance (NATO), headed by the U.S., in a “war by proxy” with Russia—providing massive amounts of arms to Ukraine and waging economic warfare (in the form of “sanctions”) against Russia, while heightening the military “readiness” of NATO countries, in particular those bordering or close to Russia.

This involves the very real danger that—deliberately, or through mistakes by one or both sides—this could lead to direct warfare between Russia and the U.S./NATO, which in turn could involve the use of nuclear weapons, even on a scale that would threaten the very existence of human beings throughout the world.

This is an important reason why the Russian invasion is not only an act of unjust imperialist aggression but is highly dangerous and potentially destructive on a massive scale, even far beyond the great damage and suffering it has already imposed on Ukraine and its people. And it is why moves to escalate U.S./NATO involvement, and calls for direct military confrontation with Russian forces, greatly heightens the danger.

All this played out very sharply—and very dangerously—this past week in Ukraine.

$800 Million in Deadlier U.S. Weapons

On April 13, the Biden Administration, which continues to condemn Russia’s leader Putin as a war criminal and imply he should not be allowed to continue ruling, announced it was shipping another $800 million in military weapons and hardware to Ukraine for its “war by proxy” with Russia. According to the Pentagon,¹ this includes heavier, more deadly weapons—“new capabilities, not things that we have provided in the past”: heavy howitzers and 40,000 artillery shells, 11 MI-17 helicopters, 200 M113 armored personnel carriers, 100 Humvees, 300 Switchblade “kamikaze” drones, radar to track incoming Russian artillery rounds, unmanned surface vessels for use against Russia’s navy, more Javelin anti-tank missiles, an S-300 long-range air defense system, and the U.S. will step up its intelligence sharing with the Ukrainian government. 

The U.S. and NATO are also orchestrating troop deployments and arms shipments to bordering nations from some 30 different countries: troops and fighter jets from France, troops and howitzers from Germany, soldiers from Britain, drones from Turkey, fighter jets from Italy, and much more. On top of this, Sweden and Finland (which borders Russia) are threatening to join NATO, perhaps in a matter of weeks—a step that would constitute a major escalation against Russia.

Weapons and military equipment are “moving in every day, literally eight to 10 flights a day into the region,” a Pentagon spokesperson bragged.  

These U.S./NATO weapons are not instruments of liberation, “freedom,” or “democracy.” They’re instruments of mass death and destruction in service of the imperialist interests of the U.S. and its allies. The U.S. has been contending with Russia for control of Ukraine for decades,² arming, training and building up its military.³ Raymond Lotta analyzes that the U.S. “is arming the Ukrainians to weaken Russia, and hoping to bog Russia down. The U.S. is using this war to tighten its leadership and grip over the West European imperialist countries.” 

These reactionary moves should be condemned—not applauded, or made even worse by demands to “do more,” as Ukraine’s increasingly reckless leader Zelensky is constantly clamoring for. His response to the $800 million in U.S. weapons (on top of the billion plus the U.S. had already delivered)? “We need more,” he told CNN.

These U.S. weapons pouring into Ukraine have had a significant impact on the battlefield. For example, Ukrainian soldiers armed with shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles reportedly helped stall the Russian assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. On April 14 the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet—the guided missile cruiser Moskva—was sunk, apparently by Ukrainian Neptune missiles. 

This and other U.S./NATO moves are escalating the war which, together with the kind of unforeseen developments in war that BA points to, “greatly heightens the danger” to humanity, as he warns.

Russia Regroups and Threatens Bloodier Attacks, Possibly Wider War

In response, Russia is reportedly regrouping and concentrating its forces in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, in preparation for a potentially even more murderous offensive there. It launched new missile strikes against the capital city Kyiv, and issued new warnings to the U.S. and its allies: quit arming Ukraine or face “unpredictable consequences.” Russia’s deputy foreign minister reportedly said U.S/NATO forces seen transporting weapons on Ukrainian territory would be considered legitimate military targets. And Russia threatened that if Finland and Sweden joined NATO, it would station more nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea region.

America’s Rulers:  Aware of the Grave Danger, Compelled to Plunge Ahead

America’s rulers are well aware of the potential dangers created by escalating the war in Ukraine. The Pentagon is reportedly debating whether Russia might target weapons destined for Ukraine while they’re still in NATO territory—potentially triggering a direct attack on Russian forces by the U.S. and other NATO countries.

CIA Director William Burns warned this week that because of Russia’s setbacks, “none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons.” Burns said there was no evidence that Russia was deploying its nuclear forces in preparation for such an attack—and studiously avoided any mention of U.S. plans for its thousands of nuclear warheads.⁴   

As Lenny Wolfe summed up on the The RNL—Revolution, Nothing Less!—Show (April 14):

The Russians and the U.S. are, and have been, locked in a high-stakes battle for influence and control of Europe. And this is the latest chapter in what has been increasingly intense contention. Put two and two together, and think of the implications. Russia has told everybody that if America tries to overthrow their government, they will use nukes. Meanwhile, Biden and the people around him know that, and they still go right ahead, willing to risk the continued existence of humanity itself to pursue U.S. imperialist interests.

All this underscores the importance of the orientation BA has stressed since the beginning of this war: 

What is called for, and urgently now, is to oppose all imperialist marauders and mass murderers, and all systems and relations of oppression and exploitation, while giving particular emphasis to opposing “our own” imperialist oppressors who commit their monstrous crimes “in our name” and seek to rally us to support them on the basis of a grotesque American chauvinism, which we must firmly reject and fiercely struggle against.