The grinding horrific war in Ukraine, in which the Ukrainian army (funded, backed and to a certain extent directed by the U.S. and its military allies) is taking on the Russian army, may not dominate the news the way it did two years ago—but it is far from over. In fact, this proxy war between Russia and the U.S. is at an extremely dangerous stage. And by “dangerous,” yes we DO mean the real possibility of nuclear war.

U.S. Ruling Class Sharply Divided Over Ukraine 

This year Russian forces have made significant advances in eastern Ukraine, seizing new territory and forcing the Ukrainians to retreat. The U.S. had at one point explicitly set its goal at “strategically weakening Russia.” But if things continue to go in this direction, Russia could end up seizing and annexing large parts of Ukraine and administering a major defeat to the U.S. and its NATO allies—at the expense of the Ukrainian people!

Up until now, the U.S. has provided over $75 billion in military and other aid to Ukraine, as well as intelligence and strategic advice. But now this aid has been drying up—largely because a decisive Republi-fascist section of the U.S. ruling class has increasingly turned against this war. 

Bob Avakian, in “The Trials of Fascist Donald Trump, and the Criminal Nature of this Whole System,” laid bare the reasons behind the Republi-fascist opposition to Biden’s Ukraine policy: 

The fascists (or at least some of them) believe that being involved in a lot of formal alliances with other (lesser) countries may restrict the freedom of U.S. imperialism to act—including with unrestrained violence and destruction—to enforce its interests, anywhere in the world. And, more specifically, at least many of these fascists strongly feel that the proxy war that the U.S., with Biden’s lead, is waging against Russia in Ukraine is a distraction from the necessary focus on opposing China and using whatever means may be necessary to prevent China from surpassing the U.S. as the world’s dominant imperialist power, militarily as well as economically. And these fascists see the war in Ukraine strengthening the ties of Russia with China, making the opposition to U.S. domination more powerful. On the other hand, Biden—and those allied with him in the ruling class—are waging, and continually increasing U.S. involvement in, a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine (using Ukrainians as “cannon fodder” in this war) because this part of the U.S. ruling class is convinced that delivering a defeat to and weakening Russia, and its ability to challenge U.S. dominance, is important in its own right and will also drive a wedge between Russia and China.

It should not have to be said that these kinds of concerns, on either side, have nothing to do with the fundamental interests of the masses of people in this country, and in the world as a whole.

Since this was written, the opposition has become more intense, with the fascists at this point refusing to pass Biden’s new requests for more military aid for Ukraine.

Ruling Out Nothing

Biden and some other NATO leaders have been trying to find ways to continue to prop up Ukraine and enable it to fight on. To put it more plainly, Genocide Joe aims to prolong the bloodbath in which Ukrainian people are fighting and dying in the interests of U.S. capitalism-imperialism in order to administer a strategic defeat to Putin. But the Republi-fascist opposition to his plans, combined with Russia’s increasing military effectiveness, could instead mean a strategic defeat for the U.S. and its European imperialist allies grouped in NATO.

That prospect could compel the U.S. or some NATO leaders to try to radically change the situation to prevent that happening, rather than see Russia conquer and take over strategic sections of Ukraine. Every way they could do that spells increased danger for the masses of people—all over the world.

Up until recently, the U.S. and NATO have repeatedly insisted they would not send their own troops into Ukraine. Doing so would put nuclear-armed Western imperialist powers in direct military confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia. But in late February, French president Emmanuel Macron was asked about the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine. He replied, “Nothing should be ruled out … anything is possible if it is useful to reach our goal … [that] Russia cannot win this war.” Macron warned the "security of Europe and the French is at stake" and if Russia wins Europe's credibility will be “reduced to zero.”

Macron’s comments were quickly repudiated by Olaf Scholz, Germany’s leading politician. Scholz said that “It is clear: there will be no ground troops from European countries or NATO.” Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda agreed with Macron. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said Ukraine needs “less talk and more ammo.” As this article was being written, a meeting between Macron, Scholz, and Tusk to show that they are “united and determined” concluded. At the end of the meeting, none of the leaders responded to questions about what they had discussed or decided. But going into the meeting, Macron had reiterated that if Ukraine lost, a number of other countries—including Poland—“would be next.” 

Meanwhile, partially in response to this French threat, Russian president Vladimir Putin has made it clear that Russia is prepared for taking this conflict as far as it needs to go to defend and advance its interests. In the past two weeks, he has twice said Russia is “ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty or independence is threatened.” Russia’s “strategic nuclear forces are in a state of full readiness,” he added. 

The point: If indeed forces in NATO put troops on the ground in any capacity in Ukraine and there is any kind of clash, this could escalate—and it could easily and quickly go up the “ladder” to an all-out nuclear exchange!

These are like two high-stakes poker players pushing their chips into the middle of the table. No matter who wins, those who pay will be the masses of people—in Ukraine, Russia and around the world.

A Nuclear Space Race, and Biden’s Armageddon Speech

At the same time, in late February the New York Times reported that Russia is developing the capability of putting nuclear weapons in space, and may attempt to do so this year. A report by Reuters said that “If Russia did develop such a weapon, then the United States would be forced to do something similar and perhaps China too—and so there would be a risk of some sort of nuclear space race.”

The New York Times also recently reported that in October 2022, Joe Biden gave a speech to a select group of wealthy and powerful supporters—but this time in more detail than originally reported. He said the U.S. thought Russia was prepared to use “battlefield nukes” in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine was not going well for Russia at that time, and Biden told his select audience that “we have a direct threat of the use of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they’ve been going.”

In this article and others, the Times, the most influential source of news in the U.S., has repeatedly raised the specter of nuclear war to its readers. Exactly why it is doing this is not clear. But it does signal concern within influential circles of the ruling class that things could get out of control—very possibly in regard to the politically explosive situation in Ukraine.

What Bob Avakian has said in response to this rings out with more immediacy and urgency than ever:

We, the people of the world, can no longer afford to allow these imperialists to continue to dominate the world and determine the destiny of humanity. They need to be overthrown as quickly as possible. And it is a scientific fact that we do not have to live this way.