Three weeks ago, with the U.S. war on Iran just one week old, we wrote: “The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is a massive, ongoing war crime on the part of the U.S./Israel, with the potential to develop into something even more terrible, beyond its current horrific dimensions.”

Today, with the war now a month old, we underline the second part of that sentence to DRIVE HOME where humanity stands: on the brink of those “even more terrible” potentials. This piece will analyze some of the current dynamics—and dangers—of the current situation. For more on the news coming out of Iran, see “The U.S.-Israeli War on Iran: 31 Days of Lies, Unprovoked Aggression, and Imperialist War Crimes.” 

As you read the following, keep this in mind:

The interests, objectives, and grand designs of the imperialists are not our interests—they are not the interests of the great majority of people in the U.S. nor of the overwhelming majority of people in the world as a whole. And the difficulties the imperialists have gotten themselves into in pursuit of these interests must be seen, and responded to, not from the point of view of the imperialists and their interests, but from the point of view of the great majority of humanity and the basic and urgent need of humanity for a different and better world, for another way.

—Bob Avakian, BAsics, 3:8

U.S. Has Wreaked Havoc and Horror, but Has Not Yet Achieved Its Aims

The U.S. imperialists have wreaked havoc and horror on Iran and in some ways upended the global economy in the process… but they seem so far to have been unable to achieve any of their strategic objectives. Despite an unprecedented month of targeted assassinations of dozens of Iran’s military and political leaders, as well as relentless bombing of the Iranian armed forces, the vaunted U.S. military has seriously damaged but not destroyed the war-making capability of the Iranian regime and its army. (The Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz says that, as of March 27, the U.S. military can only confirm that one-third of Iranian missiles have been destroyed.) Instead, the Iranian armed forces—while themselves being the military of a reactionary regime—have shown themselves able to adapt to what the U.S. throws at them and to bring their strengths into play. So cheap Iranian drones tie up or destroy far more expensive and complex U.S. military equipment. Iranian speedboats plant mines in narrow sea passages (or straits) that oil tankers must use, tying up the oil trade and causing shortages that have upset the global imperialist economic system. The Iranians have struck back militarily against Israel and the six Persian Gulf states aligned with the United States. Iranian allies in Lebanon and Yemen have also come into the fray.

The U.S. also stated a goal of gaining full control of Iran’s stockpile of uranium to prevent them from ever getting a nuclear weapon, or even using uranium for peaceful purposes, like generating electricity. But it increasingly seems the case that even having a chance of finding the full stockpile—let alone securing it and getting it out of the country—would require a direct commitment of U.S. troops. History, from Vietnam to Iraq, shows that it is far easier to commit troops than to pull them out, that “victories” are not easily won, and that even such “victories” can exact a high price in political disaffection and turmoil in the home country and the gains of rival powers. 

Meanwhile, Trump has done nothing to forge the political support among Americans that could sustain a longer war. Instead, he has alternated between increasingly desperate threats with lots of bluster, violent braggadocio, and conscious lies about how “great” America is doing and how easy this war was going to be. To take one example, early in the war, Trump claimed the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, had told him war against Iran would be “something easily won.” But according to the New York Times, “Caine briefed Trump on an array of options, including some that he said could strain U.S. munitions stocks and risk American casualties.”  

The U.S. has serious strategic goals in this war. The Middle East contains vast energy reserves; sits at the strategic crossroads of Asia, Europe and Africa; and has a population of nearly 600 million people. The U.S. wants to improve its position vis-a-vis its imperialist rivals Russia and China, both of which have significant ties to the Iranian regime.¹ But Israel and Saudi Arabia are pressing Trump to escalate, while the European imperialists (France, Germany, Britain, etc.) nervously watch oil prices rise and worry over Trump’s lunatic impulsiveness. Meanwhile, the U.S. rivals Russia and China gain in influence, and Russia is even rumored, according to the New York Times, to be about to sell much more modern drones to Iran. Instead of forcing the world to its will, the U.S. finds itself facing forces pulling in many different directions at once. Yes, they could reverse this—but this is not where they wanted to be after four-plus weeks of war. 

The Imperialists Plunge the World Into Extreme Danger

And that actually makes things all the more dangerous!!! It is very possible, for instance, that Trump will conclude that the U.S. cannot sustain the loss in stature caused by a failure to decisively crush Iran, and that therefore the U.S. must drastically escalate the war. While that is far from certain, there are some dynamics that point in that direction. 

What might such a decision by the U.S. mean? Let’s take a look.

Trump suspended this threat until April 6—next Monday!—but he has NOT backed off it. 

The Trump administration has floated other notions that would involve U.S. troops directly going into Iran—for instance, seizing Iran’s oil terminals on Kharg Island, an island off the Iranian mainland that stores the majority of Iran’s oil. But once an armed imperialist force seizes something, it has to maintain troops to hold it; and such troops can be sitting ducks for forces that have “home field advantage.” The point is that every option involves huge suffering for masses of people, and every option comes with huge risk for the imperialists.

And if Russia or China were to enter into things more directly, the stakes would rise exponentially. Then we would have nuclear-armed powers in a face-off, carrying with it the threat of massive disaster and possible extinction for all of humanity.

Yes, all of the above is very uncertain. We have pointed to trends and dynamics; we are not trying to foretell the future, and it is possible that the U.S. could still achieve some or all of its most critical goals, and declare "victory."

But we can say that the longer this war drags on, the more horrific and dangerous the situation will become. 

STOP. THIS. MADNESS.

Seriously: do you need any more proof that we are in a criminal system? Do you need any more proof of the urgency of people coming together in mass defiant action to stop this war… and of the at least equally urgent need to seriously examine real alternatives to this system? 

We started this article with one principle from Bob Avakian, and we’ll end it with another:

We, the people of the world, can no longer afford to allow these imperialists to continue to dominate the world and determine the destiny of humanity. And it is a scientific fact that humanity does not have to live this way.