Fifteen months ago, Russia invaded the neighboring country of Ukraine. This was a war crime. Russia’s continuing occupation of parts of Ukraine is also a war crime. The U.S. and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had been provoking Russia for over a decade at the time of the invasion.¹ But after the Russian invasion, the U.S./NATO greatly expanded the massive amounts of military equipment they had already been sending to Ukraine—another war crime. The fighting very quickly became a proxy war between nuclear-armed rival imperialist powers—Russia on one side and the U.S./NATO on the other.²

This war is a meat grinder into which human beings are being fed. Tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands of people have died, many more have been made refugees, and still more have been maimed, raped, made homeless, and traumatized in other ways. Through it all, the danger of nuclear war has grown.

Murderously destructive escalations in this war are quite possibly going to begin very soon. On May 26, a top Ukrainian defense official told a reporter that an offensive prepared for months by the U.S./NATO-backed and -supported Ukrainian military could begin “tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or in a week.”

Confrontations in East Asia between the U.S. and China have also escalated continuously in recent months—including using nuclear-armed jets and naval fleets to play the insane “game” of nuclear chicken.³ Rising tension in East Asia and continuing war in Ukraine put into sharp focus the fact that all life on this planet is in peril.

Why is all this going on? All of these imperialist powers are driven by the basic compulsion of capitalism-imperialism—expand or die. The U.S. is on top in the existing global power alignment. It is fighting to maintain its domination of a global empire, an empire built on the backs of the exploitation of billions of people worldwide. China is an on-the-rise and expanding power driven by the same basic compulsion, and aiming for a larger share of that exploitation. Russia aims to prevent further U.S. expansion and consolidation in countries bordering or close by Russia, and to expand its own power and influence in the division of the world by imperialist powers. Each side can establish its own supremacy only at the expense of and ultimately defeating its opponents.

What has been going on is like a high-stakes poker game in which the chips are the lives of hundreds of thousands of human beings. That’s bad enough in the first place—but with these escalations and with nuclear weapons in play, the risk exists and is growing that nuclear-armed players could make a series of bets that would turn over the table. In other words, life on this planet is at real risk in a way it has not been for 40 years or more.

Several major recent developments—the G7 summit; a tour of European capitals by Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president; F-16 fighter jet training for Ukrainian pilots; repeated raids and attacks within Russia and Ukraine; the deployment of nuclear weapons to the country of Belarus, and the fall of the city of Bakhmut to Russian forces—indicate how this entire situation is getting ever more perilous to humanity.

Bob Avakian has put it this way: “We can no longer afford to allow these imperialists to continue to dominate the world and determine the destiny of humanity.” The following short sketches from the past week or so very graphically show some of the reasons why.

U.S.-led G7—the Group of 7 (Gangsters)—Meet to Amp Up on War and Preparations for War

The “Group of 7,” or G7, is an annual meeting of the leaders of seven Western imperialist powers. Think of the “gathering of the families” in the movie The Godfather—except that these gangsters aren’t trying to figure out how to divide up their criminal activity in Brooklyn. These are international gangsters who squeeze wealth out of billions of people worldwide, head vast armed forces that span the globe, and control nuclear arsenals with enough firepower to destroy life on this planet.

And now they are challenged by rival gangsters out for a bigger share of the cut. Who are these rival gangsters? Russia, against whom they have been waging a bloody proxy war in Ukraine, and China, with whom they are engaged in almost continual confrontations and a feverish military buildup, focused on Taiwan and the South China Sea.⁴

This year’s G7 was held in the Japanese city of Hiroshima. It was entirely appropriate that this war council, headed by the U.S., met at the scene of one of U.S. imperialism’s most monstrous crimes—the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima in 1945.⁵ Shortly before he laid a wreath of “peace” and planted a “peace tree” in the city where as many as 140,000 people were killed by a U.S. bomb, Joe Biden announced that the U.S. is sending a $375 million “arms package” of ammunition, artillery, and armored vehicles to Ukraine.

This is in addition to the $400 million the U.S. sent in March, a “massive package” of weaponry they and their NATO allies announced in late January, and the over $75 billion the U.S. sent to Ukraine between February 2022 and January 2023. If you’re having trouble keeping track of the numbers, let that give you a sense of both how massive and how consistent the whole process has been. Also, while the G7 was underway, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement saying that, along with the G7 and other “international partners,” the U.S. is issuing “unprecedented global sanctions and other restrictive economic measures” meant to cripple and isolate Russia.

But even as the G7 further developed plans for continuing and escalating the bloodletting in Ukraine, it focused primarily on what G7 leaders consider their even greater and more threatening rival, China. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak declared China to be “the greatest challenge of our age.” G7 leaders issued two statements declaring their continuing support for Taiwan, and their “grave concerns” for China’s growing influence in East and South Asia. After the meeting ended, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to the South Pacific island of Papua New Guinea to sign a “security pact” in what Time magazine described as “a clear attempt to offset China’s growing regional influence.”

Ukrainian Ruler Zelensky Tours Europe to Replenish His Arsenal

In mid-May Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky made a whirlwind tour to the capitals of the four largest and most powerful European NATO members—Italy, France, Germany, and England. Zelensky’s purposes were to supply Ukraine for a major and long-anticipated offensive against Russian forces in Ukraine’s south and east, and to solidify Western European support for the war.

Prior to his visits to the European capitals Zelensky griped that military equipment from NATO was arriving in “batches” and added, “that’s unacceptable …” NATO’s war chieftains promised to deliver billions of dollars-worth of long-range missiles, tanks, armored fighting vehicles, air defense systems, hundreds of drones, and “a slew of other arms and ammunition” to Ukraine. All of this was done with the “tacit approval” and under the supervision of the U.S.

The New York Times reported that the latest “European reinforcements make it highly likely that Ukrainian troops will soon strike back at Russian forces that control the country’s south, setting off what could be one of the bloodiest stretches of the 15-month war.”

F-16 Fighter Jets, and Entering a “New Phase of Conflict”

At the G7, Joe Biden announced that the U.S. will allow NATO nations to train Ukrainian pilots in the operation of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets. The U.S. will also allow these countries “eventually to provide the aircraft” to Ukraine. The F-16 is a supersonic (faster than the speed of sound) jet used in air-to-air combat and air-to-ground attacks. For almost 50 years, the U.S. military has used them—including to bomb and kill civilians—in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, and the Persian Gulf. The U.S. has sold F-16s to numerous other governments, including those of Israel, Egypt, Taiwan, and many NATO members. Biden’s move makes Ukraine more capable of deterring Russia’s superior air power, and is a significant escalation in building up the long-term fighting capacity of the Ukrainian military.

For months, Volodymyr Zelensky had pleaded with Biden to provide F-16 training to Ukrainians. As recently as February, Biden said he was “ruling [that] out, for now.” But his recent decision wasn’t a sudden change of mind. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has had a pattern of initially refusing to provide Ukraine with arms it requested, then sending them later. Some journalists and “pundits” argued that Biden took this approach because he didn’t want the U.S./NATO and their Ukrainian proxies to provoke Russia.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, said that the release of F-16 training, and the plans to sell the planes to Ukrainians, indicate that the war in Ukraine is entering what BBC News called “a new phase of conflict.” Sullivan said the U.S. had “delivered everything we said we were going to deliver, so we put the Ukrainians in a position to make progress on the battlefield through the counteroffensive. We've reached a moment where it is time to look down the road, and say what is Ukraine going to need as part of a future force to defend against Russian aggression."

Ukraine Accused of Raiding Government Headquarters in Russia, Russia Bombs Ukraine

A few hours before dawn on May 3, two drones attacked the Kremlin, a fortified complex that is the center of the Russian government and residence of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. A statement by the Russian government said the incident was “a planned terrorist attack and an assassination attempt” by Ukraine, with U.S. backing. U.S. and Ukrainian officials immediately denied responsibility. But on May 24, the New York Times reported that the U.S. had backed off that initial denial: “U.S. officials said the drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military or intelligence units...”

The attack on the Kremlin was among the many vicious actions by both sides that have escalated in recent weeks and months. They include Russian attacks on non-military targets, such as the bombing of a student dormitory near Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, and another bombing of a nine-story apartment building in the city of Zaporizhzhia.

Last week, forces associated with Ukraine launched attacks in and around the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine. U.S. and Ukrainian officials initially denied any involvement of their governments or military with the incursions and raids around Belgorod. But videos, verified by the Washington Post, showed two heavily damaged American-made Humvees in Belgorod. Other videos showed soldiers wearing Ukrainian military fatigues, and Ukrainian armored vehicles.

Further, the leader of the attacking force was a well-known exiled Russian fascist who goes by the name of “White Rex” (meaning, white king), who German officials identified as “one of the most influential activists” in a neo-Nazi martial-arts scene. Ukrainian officials denied any knowledge of this, but “White Rex” told reporters that his group “definitely got a lot of encouragement” from Ukrainian authorities.

It isn’t clear what the military goals of the attacks inside Russia are. But even these relatively small-scale skirmishes significantly raise the stakes of the entire war in Ukraine, and the possibilities for it spiraling quickly out of anyone’s control—even to nuclear exchanges. As Russian counterattacks to the raids around Belgorod were underway, Russia was reported to have “transported nuclear weapons out of the [Belgorod] facility.”

Russia Moves Ahead with Nuclear Weapon Deployment in Belarus

On May 25, Russia began implementing a plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko said, "The movement of the nuclear weapons has already begun." Belarus is a Russian ally which borders both Russia and Ukraine. This is the first time Russia has deployed nuclear bombs outside its borders since it emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.⁶

The U.S. denounced the deployment. A State Department official said it was an example of Russia’s “irresponsible behavior.” Let’s talk about “irresponsibility.” NATO has nuclear weapons in at least five European nations. Two others (England and France) have their own nukes. Europe bristles with nuclear weapons on both sides, with the capacity of obliterating much of the life there. Any incident, intentional, mistaken, or simply careless, has the potential of igniting a shootout unlike any the world has experienced.

The deployment of nuclear weapons into Belarus, as the war in Ukraine escalates, heightens this danger.

The Battle for Bakhmut

Last week, after a grinding, viciously fought battle that lasted almost a year, Russian forces captured the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Prior to this battle, Bakhmut had a population of about 75,000 people. Now it is a wasteland of rubble. Virtually no one is left in it. Tens of thousands of people, including civilians, died in this battle; tens of thousands more have suffered severe injuries and trauma. The homes, businesses, and livelihoods of the population of Bakhmut were obliterated. U.S. officials estimate that “as many as 100,000 Russians have either died or been injured since January, mostly in and around Bakhmut.”

Militarily, Bakhmut is not strategically important to either side. It was not an economic or transportation center. Yet, looking at it from the perspective of the U.S./NATO and their Ukrainian proxies, many pundits consider the blood spilled and lives lost in Bakhmut to have been a “smart strategy,” as New York Times war correspondent Eric Schmitt put it.

“Smart strategy”? Dragging out the excruciating slaughter of this battle for almost a year, so the U.S./NATO can buy “time for the Ukrainians to build up [a] major force, [a] big arsenal of weapons and newly trained forces that will mount a counteroffensive. … that we believe is probably going to start as early as June”—that’s “smart”!?!?

Think about the cold-blooded imperialist calculations at work here. Destroying an entire city, along with everyone and everything in it. Taking the lives of tens of thousands of people, maiming, crippling tens of thousands more. All this is not just “worth it,” it is considered “smart”—if it’s in the service of preparing for even greater blood-letting, on a wider scale, to advance the cause of empire.

This Whole Dynamic Must Be Urgently, Radically Changed—in the Interests of Humanity, Not of Rival and Contending Imperialists

In Ukraine, right now, imperialist powers are locked in a deadly struggle. Both are determined to come out on top. They are preparing to inflict even greater death and destruction in the weeks and months ahead.

A U.S./NATO-backed Ukrainian offensive against the entrenched defenses Russia has been preparing in eastern and southern Ukraine would almost certainly surpass the carnage, destruction, and immiseration that has already devastated that country. It would significantly raise the possibility of direct clashes between U.S./NATO forces and the Russian military. Especially if one or the other side thinks it is facing defeat, this could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, with massive immediate deaths; widespread, lingering and painful illnesses and death in the aftermath; poisoned landscapes and water resources; and clouds spreading radioactive death drifting across Asia and Europe. It could lead to further escalations of imperialist war that, like a malignant cancer, quickly metastasize beyond Eastern Europe.

This is a threshold facing humanity.

In this situation, no one can be allowed to stand by passively and hope for the best! All these imperialists, and the capitalist-imperialist system they represent, must be overthrown. And those of us within the U.S. have the special responsibility to put revolution in this country on the map this year, and build a movement for revolution aimed at overthrowing U.S. imperialism.

Everyone needs to be challenged with, and think deeply about, the truth of these words by Bob Avakian, BA:

All this emphasizes why it is vitally important for the masses of people, in this country, and other countries aligned with it, as well as in Russia—for people everywhere—to finally and fully wake up now, recognize the real, and profoundly heavy, stakes involved, and act in accordance with our actual interests—the interests of all of humanity: demanding that this war in Ukraine, and the involvement (direct and indirect) of the imperialists on both sides in this war, be STOPPED, before it not only causes even greater suffering for the people of Ukraine but possibly escalates into a far more terrible conflict which causes massive destruction and death, on a whole other level, and even possibly poses a threat to the very existence of humanity itself.